AS OF 19 October 2026, 17:30, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-16, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark: EUR 85.41, 2026-10-16, Most liquid futures settlement, -0.5% versus the prior same-basis mark. Carried from the 2026-10-16 session, the same-day settlement file has not reached the tape, so read it as a carried prior-session settle, not today's mark. Primary print: EUR 85.12, 2026-10-19, Latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: The carried Dec26 settle sits 0.3% against today's EEX auction clearing, a narrow spread that reads as ordinary auction-to-screen timing rather than a data question.
Why: The Council's negotiating mandate on the Market Stability Reserve would suspend invalidation of holdings above 400 million and set a 800 million threshold from 2031 (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT); it is a mandate for trilogue, not law, and the rows carry the Directive as it stands.
Desk view: Constructive on the structure: surplus of 113.7 Mt (2027 flow) narrows to a deficit of -28.9 Mt (2029 flow) beside a stock of 1,023,494,202 allowances (TNAC, as of 2025-12-31), which at that level means the reserve is taking in, not releasing.
Mark: GBP 63.41, 2026-10-16, Most liquid futures settlement, -0.2%, carried prior-session settle. Primary print: GBP 60.17, 2026-09-30, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table.
What moved: Near flat on the carried settle, and 5.4% against the monthly average print, which is a different basis and a month-end one.
Why: The discount to EUA is still the story: -12.0% at Dec26 narrowing to -9.0% at Dec28 in common currency, converted at the ECB euro reference rate for 2026-10-16.
Desk view: Mildly constructive. The rows run short at -2.7 Mt (2027 flow), deepening to -17.6 Mt (2029 flow); no holdings or bank series is held for this market, what is held beside it is the registry Compliance Report's emissions and surrenders, which is not a stock.
Mark: USD 32.36, 2026-10-16, Most liquid futures settlement, 0.2%, carried prior-session settle. Primary print: USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price.
What moved: A small gain on the carried settle; the application period for the Q4 joint auction closed today, and no result is registered for it.
Why: The amended Table 6-2 removes 118.3 Mt from the 2027 to 2030 budgets, in force since the start of September, and that is the row driver rather than anything in the session.
Desk view: Long bias. The 2027 flow is short -27.0 Mt, deepening to -67.3 Mt (2029 flow), against holdings of 1,276,633,832 allowances in General and Compliance accounts, obligation not netted, as of 2026-10-01.
Mark: USD 38.35, 2026-10-16, Most liquid futures settlement, -1.7%, carried prior-session settle. Primary print: USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: The largest move on the tape, and it leaves the carried settle -2.9% against the Auction #15 clearing of $ 39.50 (Ecology publication 26-14-063).
Why: Standing frame rather than a session cause: the adopted Table 210-1 budgets take effect at the end of this week, and the APCR November application period closed today (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101), with that reserve tiered at $65.26 and $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072).
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, which is not the December contract the tape marks. Next year down, and that leans against the rows' own deepening deficit of -9.4 Mt (2027 flow), because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance looser than its own; no bank or stock figure is held here, what is held is the auction and reserve ladder above, which is not a stock.
Mark: USD 39.60, 2026-10-16, Most liquid futures settlement, -0.6%, carried prior-session settle. Primary print: USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price.
What moved: The settle eased and stands 5.2% above the Auction 73 clearing, a repricing gap since that sale rather than a basis question; the NJ BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on allowance prices was held last Thursday and no outcome is registered.
Why: Supply optionality is spent: the 2026 Cost Containment Reserve was triggered at Auction 71 at a trigger price of $18.22 and fully depleted (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report). Virginia rejoined on 1 July 2026 and first offered allowances at Auction 73, which raised proceeds of 259,333,200 USD.
Desk view: Constructive, paced by the bank. The 2027 flow is short -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons beside a surplus in circulation of 55,000,000 short tons as of 2026-06-30; drawdown pace is the trade.
Last print, not a mark: NZD 50.50, 2026-10-09, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks), ten days old against a seven-day cadence, so no delta is quoted.
What moved: Nothing marked. The September quarterly auction failed: 10,400,000 units offered, 10,400,000 unsold and rolled forward (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 auction to fail.
Why: Bidding sits below the auction floor, so the rows carry industrial allocation only and no auction supply.
Desk view: The desk's base case for the December auction is another no-clear, stated explicitly; the zero-auction-supply rows are the stress case and are labelled as such, and the desk holds no cleared-at-floor row beside them. The 2027 flow is short -33.8 Mt and no stock series is held, what is held is the unsold auction volume above, which is not a stock.
Last print, not a mark: AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026, 66 days old against a four-day cadence, so no delta and no current level is claimed.
What moved: No fresh mark.
Why: Rows run on the legislated Safeguard baseline decline, unchanged this session.
Desk view: Structurally long. The 2027 flow is short -22.8 Mt beside registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs excluding the cost containment measure, as of 2026-06-30.
Administered price, not a market cadence: CAD 95.00, 2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026. No citable secondary mark is held for this market.
What moved: Nothing on the headline price.
Why: The Implementation Agreement holds the headline flat for the three years after 2026 before stepping up in 2030, with a credit price floor ladder from 2030 and the floor regulation to be enacted by the end of this year.
Desk view: The live variable is the enactment date, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated before it; the balance picture here is two years behind the price.
Prints: BC credits CAD 213.96, September 2026 average transfer price (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-October-2026); the prior month's average was CAD 172.0 (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026). CARB weekly LCFS: USD 68.30, week of 2026-10-05, posted 2026-10-13, range 54.40 to 100.00.
What moved: The CARB weekly average fell -16.9% from USD 82.18 for the week of 2026-09-28, the clearest step down on today's tape.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel, diesel less feedstock, reads bearish for credit supply with Brent at 126.55 $/BBL, WTI at 101.91 $/BBL and Gulf Coast ULSD at 4.844 $/GAL, all EIA spot, 2026-10-14: firmer crude widens the margin, more renewable diesel is generated and credit supply rises. This is direction only, as the desk holds no current licensed RIN price, the EMTS prints on the tape being 56 days old and historic.
Desk view: Flow is bearish against a structure that tightens: the 2026Q1 balance showed credits of 6.93 million MT against deficits of 9.77 million MT with a bank of 36.86 million MT, which is not current. The desk weights flow this session because the weekly print is the freshest thing in the complex. Separately, a change to the federal Clean Fuel Regulations SOR/2022-140 was detected in the desk's own feed since the last edition; the CFR rows stay an index until ECCC publishes credit-retirement volumes.
RECs: not covered this edition.
VCM: not covered this edition.
CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report runs on a Tuesday cadence and tomorrow is a Tuesday; the desk will carry it when it posts, and after today's step down the range matters as much as the average. Later this week: the CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning read on the carbon complex, and the adopted Ecology budget table taking effect at the end of the week. Into month end: CARB's 2026Q2 LCFS quarterly data summary is expected, and Washington's Auction #16 application period closes in early November (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Summary-of-Expected-Dates-2514100), with the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November. Results for today's two application closures, the Q4 joint auction and the Washington APCR November sale, are not registered events and carry no figures.
Corrections & notes