AS OF 20 October 2026, 17:30, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark EUR 85.65 (2026-10-20, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.3% day over day; primary print EUR 85.10 (2026-10-20, Latest EEX auction clearing price), mark 0.6% against it.
What moved: A drift, not a move, and inside the band where this desk names no driver.
Why: The live policy thread is the Council's negotiating mandate on the Market Stability Reserve, agreed 23 September 2026, which would suspend invalidation above 400 million and set 800 million from 2031 (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT); it is a mandate for trilogue, not law. Separately, a European Council meeting on 15 and 16 October was framed as pivotal, with Italy and the Czech Republic bringing a joint initiative to ease environmental standards.
Desk view: Constructive structurally: the rows run surplus 113.7 Mt (2027) million allowances (2027) and flip to deficit -28.9 Mt (2029) million allowances (2029) against a stock of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31), with the reserve in intake rather than release.
Mark GBP 63.43 (2026-10-20, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.4% day over day; primary print GBP 60.17 (2026-09-30, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table), mark 5.4% above it, which is a monthly-average basis against today's settlement rather than a repricing.
What moved: A small gain, no driver named at this size.
Why: The paired differential sits at -12.1% for Dec26 and -8.8% by Dec28 in common currency, at the ECB euro reference rate for 19 October: the front discount is the linkage question, carried as a standing desk view.
Desk view: Constructive on the curve, deficit -2.7 Mt (2027) deepening to -17.6 Mt (2029); no holdings or bank series is published for this market, and what the desk holds beside the flow is the registry Compliance Report's emissions and surrenders, which is not a stock.
Mark USD 32.75 (2026-10-20, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.7% day over day; primary print USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price), mark 0.8% against it.
What moved: The firmest of the five futures marks today, still under 1 percent.
Why: No single session driver. The structural cause is the amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027 to 2030, effective September 1, 2026.
Desk view: Constructive but slow: deficit -27.0 Mt (2027) deepening to -84.2 Mt (2030) against 1,276,633,832 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-10-01), a bank that absorbs several years of that flow.
Mark USD 38.00 (2026-10-20, Most liquid futures settlement), 0.0% day over day; primary print USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement), mark -3.8% against it.
What moved: Unchanged on the session. The reserve tape is the story: APCR Auction #8, held September 30, 2026 at Tier 1 $65.26 and Tier 2 $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072), offered 172,348 allowances and recorded a bid-to-allowance ratio of 0.00 (Ecology publication 26-14-073): no bids, reported as having occurred.
Why: The application period for the November reserve auction closed yesterday (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101), and Ecology's adopted Chapter 173-446 WAC budget table (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23) takes effect this week.
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, and that is not the Dec26 contract the tape marks. Next year down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance looser than its own. No bank or stock figure is held here; what sits beside the deficit flow of -9.4 Mt (2027) is the adopted budget table, which is supply, not a stock. Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
Mark USD 39.64 (2026-10-20, Most liquid futures settlement), -0.1% day over day; primary print USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price), mark 5.3% above it, repricing since the September auction rather than a basis artefact.
What moved: Flat on the session. New Jersey's DEP and BPU held their joint hearing on RGGI allowance prices on 15 October (Docket QO26090531), and written comments on DEP's rule proposal run to early November.
Why: No price driver at this size. Standing: the CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71, made available at $18.22 (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report), so the reserve is a spent lever; Virginia rejoined in July and its H2 budget allowances are spread across the September and December auctions, while the cap rows stay ten-state.
Desk view: Constructive, paced by the bank: deficit -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons (2027) deepening to -32.9 Mt (2030) million short tons (2030) against 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30). Drawdown pace is the trade.
Last print NZD 50.50 (2026-10-09, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)), stale against a seven-day cadence, so no delta is quoted and this is a last print, not a mark.
What moved: Nothing marked today.
Why: The September quarterly auction failed with no bids, 10,400,000 units unsold and rolled to the December auction (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 failure.
Desk view: The rows assume auctions clear nothing below the NZD 71 floor, and that is the stress case, labelled as such; the cleared-at-floor case is not rowed, so no balance is published for it. The desk's base case into December is another no-clear absent an MfE settings change. No bank or stock figure is held; the auction result is what sits beside the flow.
Primary print AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026), stale against its cadence: a historic level, no delta.
What moved: No fresh mark.
Why: The citable source is quarterly.
Desk view: Deficit -22.8 Mt (2027) deepening to -34.4 Mt (2030) against 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Administered price CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026), a policy price labelled as such and not aged against a market cadence.
What moved: Nothing: the headline is set by schedule.
Why: The Implementation Agreement fixes the annual ladder to 2040; Alberta is to enact the credit price floor regulation by the end of this year, and the enactment fixes the grandfathering cutoff.
Desk view: No price view. No stock figure is held for this market.
Primary print CAD 213.96 (2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price), a monthly series.
What moved: No session move on a monthly cadence.
Why: The September average, 213.96 CAD (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-October-2026), is above the August average of 172.0 CAD (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026).
Desk view: Firm on transfer prices; no stock held, the transfer series is a flow.
CARB weekly credit transfer average USD 68.30, week of 2026-10-05, posted 2026-10-13, range 54.40 to 100.00, against 82.18 for the week of 2026-09-28, -16.9% week on week. The tape's RIN prints are EPA EMTS weekly averages from 24 August, historic prints rather than current marks, so no RIN level is quoted.
What moved: This week's CARB report was due today on CARB's Tuesday cadence; nothing newer than the print above is on the tape at the 17:30 clock.
Why: The week-on-week decline is in the posted weekly series. The renewable-diesel margin channel, diesel less feedstock, carries the desk's EIA legs: Brent 126.55 $/BBL, WTI 101.91 $/BBL and Gulf Coast ULSD 4.844 $/GAL, EIA spot for 2026-10-14; with no feedstock print at cadence the desk states the legs and claims no direction from them.
Desk view: Neutral into the next weekly print. The LRT-QS balance for 2026Q1, not current, shows credits 6.93 million MT against deficits 9.77 million MT and a bank of 36.86 million MT.
RECs: not covered this edition. VCM: not covered this edition.
Tomorrow is a trading day with no auction on the desk's calendar, so the near catalysts are the CFTC Commitments of Traders on Friday for positioning in the carbon complex, CARB's next weekly LCFS credit transfer report on Tuesday, and CARB's 2026Q2 quarterly data summary expected at month end. In Washington, the adopted budget table's effective date falls this week, Auction #16's application period and the November reserve auction's bid guarantees fall in early November (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Summary-of-Expected-Dates-2514100), and the annual compliance deadline lands on the first business day of November. In RGGI, New Jersey's comment window runs to early November.
Corrections & notes