AS OF 21 October 2026, 17:30, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are today's close, marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
Mark EUR 85.91, 2026-10-21, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), 0.3% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print EUR 85.10, 2026-10-20, Latest EEX auction clearing price.
What moved: A narrow grind, 0.3% on the session, with the Dec26 settle 1.0% against yesterday's auction clearing, an ordinary primary-to-futures spread rather than a signal.
Why: Below two percent the desk names no single driver; the policy backdrop is unchanged, with the Council's negotiating mandate to suspend invalidation of reserve holdings above 400 million and set a 800 million threshold from 2031 (Council of the European Union (General Secretariat), publication Council-MSR-Mandate-ST-13517-2026-INIT) still a mandate for trilogue, not law. Analysts remain split on what the review does to the curve, some forecasting allowance prices well higher in 2027 and others a modest reduction against their pre-reform outlook.
Desk view: Constructive and patient: the rows run a surplus of 113.7 Mt in 2027, a one-year flow, flipping to -28.9 Mt in 2029, against a stock of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31) that sits in the reserve's intake band.
Mark GBP 63.96, 2026-10-21, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), 0.8% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print GBP 60.17, 2026-09-30, Official monthly average UKA settlement price (Dec futures), CCM table.
What moved: The biggest mover on the board at 0.8%, and 6.3% against the September monthly average, which is a different basis and not a same-day comparison.
Why: Under one percent the desk attributes no cause to a headline, but the standing October driver is the linkage track: UK prices reached their highest since late January on 12 October after the Prime Minister and EU officials confirmed emissions trading would be on the agenda at next month's EU-UK summit in Brussels. The Dec26 UKA/EUA differential in euro is -11.4% at the ECB reference rate of 2026-10-20.
Desk view: Hold the long-dated tightening: -2.7 Mt in 2027. No holdings or bank series is held for this market; what is held is the registry Compliance Report's emissions and surrenders, which is not a stock.
Mark USD 32.81, 2026-10-21, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), 0.2% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print USD 32.48, 2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement price.
What moved: Effectively unchanged at 0.2%, 1.0% against the August auction settlement.
Why: No driver identified. The amended budget table removing 118.3 Mt across 2027-2030 is already in the rows and is not new information to the curve.
Desk view: Structurally long-biased: a 2027 flow of -27.0 Mt beside a stock of 1,276,633,832 allowances (holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-10-01), so the deficit bites on bank drawdown, not on any single year.
Mark USD 38.00, 2026-10-21, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), 0.0% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print USD 39.50, 2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement.
What moved: Flat on the session, and -3.8% against the Auction #15 settlement of $ 39.50 (Ecology publication 26-14-063).
Why: No driver identified; the November reserve auction's application period closed earlier this week (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101), with APCR Tier 1 at $65.26 and Tier 2 at $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072) still the ceiling architecture above this mark.
Desk view: Near term up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, which is not the December contract the tape marks. Next year down once linkage takes effect and pools Washington into a combined balance looser than its own; the linkage effective date is not yet determined by Ecology and requires at least ninety days' public notice, which the desk does not hold. No bank or stock figure is held here; what is held is auction and reserve flow, including ECR Auction #1's 731,000 allowances sold at $39.50 (Ecology publication 26-14-070, September 2026). Why the desk differs from the curve: near term, the desk expects Washington prices higher into compliance - in physical terms, into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered, not in the December contract the tape marks - in line with the tightening standalone curve; for next year the desk expects them lower, because once linkage takes effect Washington is pooled into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own, which the standalone curve does not measure.
Mark USD 39.69, 2026-10-21, Most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), 0.1% vs prior same-basis mark. Primary print USD 37.65, 2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price.
What moved: A tick, 0.1%, leaving the mark 5.4% above the Auction 73 clearing.
Why: No driver identified; the wires describe RGGI activity as quiet, and New Jersey's joint hearing on allowance prices earlier this month (New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (nj.gov/bpu), publication NJBPU-RGGI-Joint-Hearing-Notice-QO26090531-2026-09-21) has produced nothing the curve has priced.
Desk view: Constructive. Ten-state rows run -9.8 Mt in 2027, a one-year flow, against a stock of 55,000,000 short tons (surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30); the Cost Containment Reserve was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71 above the $18.22 trigger (Potomac Economics, publication Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report), so drawdown pace is the trade. Virginia rejoined on 1 July 2026 and its H2 budget allowances are offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across September and December.
Last print NZD 50.50, 2026-10-09, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks): 12 days old against a 7-day cadence, a last print rather than a mark, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing the desk can mark.
Why: The September quarterly auction failed, with 10,400,000 units unsold and rolled to the December auction (New Zealand Government ETS auction platform (etsauctions.govt.nz), publication NZ-ETS-Auction-Results-September-2026), the third 2026 auction to fail.
Desk view: The rows assume auctions clear nothing below the floor, which is a stress case that has now occurred three times; the desk treats a December no-clear as its base case. Balance -33.8 Mt in 2027 as a supply path only, since no stock or holdings figure is held for this market.
Last print AUD 39.03, 2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026: 68 days old against a 4-day cadence, not a current level, and no delta is quoted.
What moved: Unmarked today.
Why: The quarterly report is the only citable source and the next edition is not out.
Desk view: Structurally tight, -22.8 Mt in 2027, beside holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Administered print CAD 95.00, 2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026: a scheduled policy price, not aged against a market cadence.
What moved: Nothing; there is no citable secondary mark, as the available feed carries no open-interest data from which to pick a reference contract.
Why: The headline schedule is fixed by agreement through 2040.
Desk view: The live item is the credit price floor regulation Alberta is to enact on the Agreement's own schedule, because the enactment date fixes the grandfathering cutoff for credits generated before it.
CARB weekly credit print USD 77.76, week of 2026-10-12, posted 2026-10-20, range 56.25 to 100.00; prior week USD 68.30, week of 2026-10-05, 13.9%. BC LCFS CAD 213.96, 2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price.
What moved: The California weekly average rose week on week by 13.9%, inside a wide transfer range that keeps single-week reads noisy.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel, diesel less feedstock: with Brent 126.55 $/BBL, WTI 101.91 $/BBL and Gulf Coast ULSD 4.844 $/GAL, EIA spot at 2026-10-14, firmer diesel widens the margin, lifts renewable-diesel volume and credit generation, and is bearish credits; direction only, no number claimed. The tape's RIN prints are historic at 2026-08-24 and support no statement about today.
Desk view: Range-trading the weekly print, with the structural read anchored on the 2026Q1 balance, credits 6.93 against deficits 9.77 million MT and a bank of 36.86 million MT, which is not current.
No dated event sits on the desk's calendar for Thursday. Later this week the CFTC Commitments of Traders print carries positioning in the carbon complex; CARB's weekly LCFS credit transfer report runs on its weekly cadence, published the following Tuesday; the 2026Q2 LCFS quarterly data summary is expected at month end. Ecology's adopted Chapter 173-446 and 173-441 WAC amendments take effect within days per the filed order of adoption (Ecology publication Ecology-CR-103-WAC-173-441-446-AO-24-02), and Auction #16's application period closes early next month (ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Summary-of-Expected-Dates-2514100).
RECs: not covered this edition.
VCM: not covered this edition.
Correction issued 2026-10-21
Correction: adopting the WAC 173-446 amendments did not complete the steps Washington needs for linkage - the rule itself requires an effective date determined by Ecology and 90 days' public notice: The 24 September morning note said Ecology's adoption of the Chapter 173-446 WAC amendments completed the steps Washington needs for linkage. Read the full correction
Corrections & notes