AS OF 21 October 2026, 06:10, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the latest settlement held, dated on each line (session of 2026-10-20, a prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark: USD 32.75 (2026-10-20, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), carried from the prior session, 0.7% against the prior same-basis mark.
What moved: Nothing new overnight; the mark sits 0.8% against the Auction 48 clearing of USD 32.48 (2026-08-19).
Why: The amended Table 6-2 removal of 118.3 Mt across 2027 to 2030 is in the rows, which run -27.0 Mt (2027) deepening to -84.2 Mt (2030); beside that flow sits a held stock of 1,276,633,832 allowances, holdings in General and Compliance accounts, compliance obligation not netted, 2026-10-01.
Desk view: Constructive on the structural curve, patient on timing, because the holdings stock is large enough to absorb a deficit year without repricing the front.
Washington (WCA). Mark: USD 38.00 (2026-10-20, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), unchanged on the day.
What moved: The November reserve auction application period closed on 19 October per ecology.wa.gov publication Ecology-2026-Reserve-Auction-Potential-Dates-2514101; the Dec26 futures mark stands -3.8% against Auction #15's clearing of $ 39.50 (Ecology publication 26-14-063), a discount the desk reads as December-contract timing rather than a data question.
Why: The adopted budget table (Ecology publication Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23) takes effect this week and the rows are short, -9.4 Mt (2027) to -19.4 Mt (2030); no bank or holdings figure is held for Washington, what the desk holds instead is the APCR tier ladder, Tier 1 at $65.26 and Tier 2 at $83.84 (Ecology publication 26-14-072), which is contingent supply, not a stock.
Desk view (near term): Up in physical and spot terms into the annual compliance deadline on the first business day of November, when thirty percent of last year's covered emissions must be surrendered; this is not a call on the December futures contract the tape marks.
Desk view (next year): Down, because linkage pools Washington into a combined balance with California-Quebec that is looser than its own.
RGGI (RGA). Mark: USD 39.64 (2026-10-20, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), -0.1% on the day.
What moved: No fresh RGGI primary since the NJ BPU and NJDEP joint hearing on allowance prices six days ago (New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (nj.gov/bpu), publication NJBPU-RGGI-Joint-Hearing-Notice-QO26090531-2026-09-21); as context, EPA's partial repeal of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards is now in D.C. Circuit litigation (coag.gov publication COAG-Petition-for-Review-CPS-Partial-Repeal-2026-10-01; a 21-state coalition filed 1 October, Ballotpedia).
Why: Ten-state rows are in deficit from -9.8 Mt (2027) million short tons (2027) to -32.9 Mt (2030) million short tons (2030), against a held surplus of 55,000,000 short tons, surplus allowances in circulation, 2026-06-30; the 2026 CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71, and Virginia's H2 budget volumes are spread across the September and December sales.
Desk view: Neutral at the front, constructive on a twelve-month horizon; drawdown pace of that surplus, not any single compliance year, is the trade.
Alberta TIER. Print: CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, Headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement of 15 May 2026). No citable traded mark is held, because no reference contract can be determined.
What moved: AESO ISO Rules text changed overnight on our monitors; nothing in it touches the TIER headline schedule, and no TIER primary moved.
Why: The headline is administered, not traded, and the live variable is Alberta enacting the credit price floor regulation by the end of this year, which fixes the grandfathering cutoff for pre-enactment credits.
Desk view: Neutral on the headline price, which is fixed by schedule; the risk is in the credit stack, and the desk holds no bank figure for Alberta.
California LCFS. Print: USD 77.76, weekly volume-weighted average credit transfer price for the week of 2026-10-12, posted 2026-10-20, range 56.25 to 100.00.
What moved: Yesterday's posting lifted the average from 68.30 the prior week (2026-10-05), a week-on-week move of 13.9%, which is this morning's largest verified move anywhere on our marks.
Why: The renewable-diesel margin channel, diesel less feedstock, is the decision variable behind credit generation: our energy legs read Brent 126.55 $/BBL, WTI 101.91 $/BBL and ULSD Gulf Coast 4.844 $/GAL (2026-10-14, US EIA). The quarterly balance remains 2026Q1, credits 6.93 against deficits 9.77 million MT with a bank of 36.86 million MT, not a current figure.
Desk view: Constructive on CA LCFS credits. Firmer crude widens the RD margin and is bearish credits on the flow channel, but the single-week range is wide and the bank is drawing down; we weight the drawdown over one week of flow, and say plainly that the two read opposite ways.
Oregon CFP, Washington CFS, Canada CFR, BC LCFS. BC's print is CAD 213.96 (2026-09-30, September 2026 avg transfer price), up from 172.0 in August (BC Ministry of Energy and Climate Solutions (gov.bc.ca), publication BC-LCFS-Credit-Market-Data-September-2026). Oregon's September transfer report is held (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, publication ORDEQ-CFP-Credit-Transfer-Report); no Washington CFS mark is held. For the federal CFR the desk holds an index, not a quantity, because ECCC's credit-retirement data is unpublished, and no stock figure is held for either CFR or BC. RIN prints on our tape are 58 days old and are last prints, not current levels; no delta is quoted against them. Read: neutral, no new primary in the last 24 hours.
No new REC primary overnight. The desk tracks RPS programmes across 33 US jurisdictions and holds a sourced traded price in 14 of them. Read: neutral across classes, and the desk takes no firmness call where the only available prices are vendor-assessed and not citable. Linkage worth stating: a firm power curve supports compliance REC demand, and the gas leg at Henry Hub 3.22 $/MMBTU (2026-10-14, US EIA) is the near-term driver of both REC demand and RGGI-covered burn.
SBTi. No development in the last 24 hours. As standing context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard v2.0 was published in June 2026; SBTi Services opens validations against v2.0 on 1 February 2027, v1.3.1 submissions close 31 January 2028 and v2.0 becomes mandatory 1 February 2028. Read: demand-side support for high-integrity credits is a 2027 story, not a Q4 one.
Removals, CORCs and Puro. Our monitors flagged a change to the Puro Standard General Rules v4.4 document; the version itself is standing context, approved in May 2026 (Puro document library), and the desk holds the registered rules (Puro.earth Oy, publication Puro-Standard-General-Rules-v4-4). No price is held for CORCs. Read: neutral.
Article 6 and crediting bodies. Nothing new the desk holds. Read: neutral.
EU ETS (EUA). Mark: EUR 85.65 (2026-10-20, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), 0.3% on the day; primary print EUR 85.10 (2026-10-20, Latest EEX auction clearing price).
What moved: A quiet session, with the mark a fraction above the latest auction clearing.
Why: The rows show a surplus narrowing from 113.7 Mt (2027) to -100.5 Mt (2030), flipping to deficit in 2029, against TNAC of 1,023,494,202 allowances (total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC), 2025-12-31), which sits in the intake band, so the reserve is absorbing rather than releasing. The Council's MSR mandate of 23 September remains a negotiating mandate for trilogue, not law.
Desk view: Constructive into 2027, neutral on the session.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: GBP 63.43 (2026-10-20, Most liquid futures settlement, Dec26), 0.4% on the day; the Dec26 differential to EUA in common currency is -11.9%.
What moved: Nothing new overnight.
Why: Rows are short, -2.7 Mt (2027) deepening to -17.6 Mt (2029); no holdings or bank series is published for the UK ETS, what the desk holds beside the flow is the 2026 free allocation table and the CCM trigger table, neither of which is a stock.
Desk view: Constructive on the discount narrowing over 2027, neutral today.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark: NZD 50.50 (2026-10-09, NZU secondary spot (open-licensed scrape of broker marks)). That print is 12 days old against a 7-day cadence and is a last print, not a current level; no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing overnight.
Why: The September auction failed, with 10,400,000 units offered and 10,400,000 unsold, rolled to the December sale; it was the third 2026 auction to fail. The rows assume auctions clear nothing below the floor and run -33.8 Mt (2027); no bank figure is held.
Desk view: The no-clear case is now the desk's base case for December, explicitly; secondary stays floor-anchored.
Australia (ACCU). Print: AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, Generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026, post-quarter price, 14 August 2026). That print is 68 days old against a 4-day cadence; it is a historic level, not today's market, and no delta is quoted against it.
What moved: Nothing new.
Why: Legislated baseline decline keeps rows short, -22.8 Mt (2027), against registry holdings of 61,200,000 ACCUs (registry holdings excluding the cost containment measure, 2026-06-30).
Desk view: Constructive structurally, unactionable on a stale mark.
Corrections & notes