Regulation is the market

Every balance this desk publishes is downstream of a named law, and every change ships with its regulation attached. Brass markers are history; dashed gold is the future already embedded in the rows. No price forecasts - enacted policy anchors only, validated against statute every morning and evening.

EU ETS Mt - supply (brass) vs demand (ink), 2027-30 2027 2028 2029 2030 2026-08-31 RRF top-ups end - front-load unwinds 2027 COM(2026) 616 proposal - would re-row on adoption Surplus narrows, flips to deficit in 2029 - the LRF is the driver, and it is law. RGGI M short tons - supply (brass) vs demand (ink), 2027-30 2027 2028 2029 2030 2026-08-05 NY FINALIZES Third Program Review - ladder becomes bankable 2026-08-19 BASIS CORRECTED: rows are TEN-STATE per RGGI.org scope note 2027-01-01 VA budget lands via DEQ rule - both rows re-state Ten-state basis: surplus narrows and flips to deficit in 2029 as the 8.5M cuts bite; ~67M bank is the cushion. WCI (CA-Quebec) Mt - supply (brass) vs demand (ink), 2027-30 2027 2028 2029 2030 post-Sept-1 path (embedded) 2026-05-29 Amendments ADOPTED (~118M removal) 2026-09-01 Amendments take EFFECT - rows re-row, cause named Deficit deepens on current law; the shaded path is the Sept-1 world - already embedded, already named. UK ETS Mt - supply (brass) vs demand (ink), 2027-30 2027 2028 2029 2030 2026-07-01 Maritime enters scope (+983k UKAs distributed) 2028 Legislated step-down to 53.5 Deficit throughout; the 2028 cliff is statute, not scenario. NZ ETS Mt - supply (brass) vs demand (ink), 2027-30 2027 2028 2029 2030 2026 Every 2026 auction FAILS below the NZD 71 floor 2026-09-08 First Xpansiv-operated auction - Tuesday, per MfE INFO 1349 Supply pinned at allocation because the price floor binds - regulation is the whole chart.

Caught on the record

Documented in the desk's own published corrections and factcheck companions - the receipts are public.

NZ auction date 2026-08-18
Desk published Sept 3; corrected OUT LOUD to Tuesday Sept 8 against MfE INFO 1349 - and banked the 1.3M/auction, 6.5M CCR canon in the same pass.
NI one-off EUA sale 2026-08-17
July 30 EEX revision caught: moved to Oct 13, 2027 at 896,500 - the superseded Oct 7 / 757,500 purged from every surface.
RGGI regional cap step 2026-08-18
The 8.5M/yr decline correctly attributed to the ten-state regional model rule, not a single state's rulemaking - fixed pre-publication.
EUA mirror discipline 2026-08-18
A recycled Aug-14 close staged under a new date was refused pre-publish and re-anchored to the live external print - the flagged-prior rule became law and then code.

Rows shown are the same canon the daily forward-check validates; the WCI amended path re-rows on Sept 1 with the amendment named as cause.