Regulation is the market

Every balance this desk publishes is downstream of a named law, and every change ships with its regulation attached. Brass markers are history; dashed gold is the future already embedded in the rows. No price forecasts - enacted policy anchors only, re-validated against statute by the forward check on its weekday schedule.

EU ETS Mt - supply (brass) vs demand (ink), 2027-30 2027 2028 2029 2030 2026-08-31 RRF top-ups end - front-load unwinds 2027 COM(2026) 616 proposal - would re-row on adoption Opens in surplus at 113.7 and flips in 2029, reaching -100.5 by 2030. The LRF is the driver, and it is law. RGGI M short tons - supply (brass) vs demand (ink), 2027-30 2027 2028 2029 2030 2026-08-05 NY FINALIZES Third Program Review - ladder becomes bankable 2026-09-01 DEMAND RE-ANCHORED on 82.0M observed covered emissions 2027-01-01 VA budget lands via DEQ rule - both rows re-state Deficit in every year, widening from -9.8 to -32.9. Ten-state basis; the surplus in circulation is the cushion (55M short tons, Potomac Economics, WCI (CA-Quebec) Mt - supply (brass) vs demand (ink), 2027-30 2027 2028 2029 2030 2026-05-29 Amendments ADOPTED (~118M removal) 2026-09-01 Amendments IN FORCE - these are the amended rows Deficit in every year, widening from -27.0 to -84.2. The ~118M removal is already in the caps shown; it is law, not a scenario. UK ETS Mt - supply (brass) vs demand (ink), 2027-30 2027 2028 2029 2030 2026-07-01 Maritime enters scope - caps re-stated per SI 2026/392 2028 Legislated step-down in Table B Deficit in every year, widening to -17.6 in 2029, then narrowing to -17.2. The 2028 step-down is statute, not scenario. NZ ETS Mt - supply (brass) vs demand (ink), 2027-30 2027 2028 2029 2030 2026 Every 2026 auction FAILS below the NZD 71 floor 2026-09-08 First Xpansiv-operated auction - Tuesday, per MfE INFO 1349 Deficit in every year, narrowing from -33.8 to -32.6. Supply pinned at allocation because the price floor binds - regulation is the whole chart.

Caught on the record

Documented in the desk's own published corrections and factcheck companions - the receipts are public.

NZ auction date 2026-08-18
Desk published Sept 3; corrected OUT LOUD to Tuesday Sept 8 against MfE INFO 1349 - and banked the 1.3M/auction, 6.5M CCR canon in the same pass.
NI one-off EUA sale 2026-08-17
July 30 EEX revision caught: moved to Oct 13, 2027 at 896,500 - the superseded Oct 7 / 757,500 purged from every surface.
RGGI regional cap step 2026-08-18
The 8.5M/yr decline correctly attributed to the ten-state regional model rule, not a single state's rulemaking - fixed pre-publication.
EUA mirror discipline 2026-08-18
A recycled Aug-14 close staged under a new date was refused pre-publish and re-anchored to the live external print - the flagged-prior rule became law and then code.

Rows are read at render from the same forward-balance canon the daily forward-check validates - 5 of 5 markets resolved.