AS OF 24 September 2026, 06:00, MDT (Calgary, UTC-6). Futures marks are the 2026-09-23 close (prior session), marked off the most liquid futures contract by open interest, Dec26; California-Quebec (CCA)/EU ETS (EUA)/RGGI (RGA)/UK ETS (UKA)/Washington (WCA) are carried from a prior session and labelled as such in the line. Auction clearings and regulator prints carry their own dates, which are stated on each. Currency is named on every price.
California-Quebec (CCA). Mark: USD 31.40 (2026-09-23, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), CCA V26, settlement observation), -0.3 percent vs prior same-basis mark — carried from the 2026-09-23 session, the same-day settlement file has not reached the tape. Primary print: USD 32.48 (2026-08-19, Auction 48, current-vintage settlement); the Dec26 future sits about 3.3 percent below that clearing, a modest post-auction discount rather than a data question.
What moved: Governor Newsom announced at Climate Week NYC on 23 September that California is moving toward linking its carbon market with Washington State ; he has made the findings California law requires about a partner state's market before CARB may proceed with linking . California and Quebec still have to complete their own regulatory changes before merging can occur.
Why: Linkage widens the pool into a structurally short book. Our forward rows have the joint market in deficit throughout — -27.0 Mt in 2027 deepening to -84.2 Mt by 2030 — on amended 17 CCR 95841 Table 6-2 (effective 1 September 2026, 118.3 Mt removed across 2027-2030) plus Quebec's Décret 1126-2017. Those rows are budget minus emissions and carry no bank, no reserve and no ceiling, so read them as a supply path, not a scarcity count.
Desk view: Judgment — constructive CCA on the structural curve, neutral on the front; authorisation is a step, not the link, and the binding items are CARB's and Quebec's own rulemakings.
Washington (WCA). Mark: USD 39.40 (2026-09-23, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), WCA V26, settlement observation), -0.3 percent vs prior same-basis mark, carried from the prior session. Primary print: USD 39.50 (2026-09-02, Auction #15 settlement).
What moved: Ecology adopted the Chapter 173-446 WAC amendments on 23 September (registered Ecology-WAC-173-446-Adopted-Text-2026-09-23; rule effective 24 October) — the state finalised the regulatory changes making its market compatible with California-Québec, completing the steps it needs for linkage . ECR Auction #1, held 16 September, sold all 731,000 vintage-2023 allowances at USD 39.50 with cover 2.11 (Ecology publication 26-14-070, results released 23 September).
Why: The 2027-2030 supply rows are now the adopted Table 210-1 budgets (47.3/43.1/39.0/34.8 Mt), against demand of 56.7 falling to 54.2 — deficit throughout, and 2029-2030 re-row again upon linkage per the table's own footnote.
Desk view: Judgment — bullish WCA into 2027 on the adopted ladder; near term the cover of 2.11 at the ECR says bid is present at the low-39s. APCR Auction #8 on 30 September offers 172,348 allowances at Tier 1 USD 65.26, Tier 2 USD 83.84 with none offered (Ecology publication 26-14-072) — far above the mark, so no ceiling pressure.
RGGI (RGA). Mark: USD 37.69 (2026-09-23, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), RGGI V26, settlement observation), -2.3 percent vs prior same-basis mark, carried from the prior session. Primary print: USD 37.65 (2026-09-09, Auction 73 clearing price).
What moved: The 23 September settle is the softest same-basis move on our tape this week, -2.3 percent. Federally, EPA's final rule repealing most provisions of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards published with an effective date of 16 November 2026 — note the instrument's own scope word: it is a partial repeal.
Why: Standing facts that hold the read: the 2026 CCR was triggered and fully depleted at Auction 71 (held 11 March 2026, over 7.8M allowances sold, clearing USD 24.99, register Auction_71_Market_Monitor_Report) — a spent lever, not a dormant one. Virginia rejoined on 1 July 2026 and its 11.48M H2 budget allowances plus a 1,148,000 CCR tranche are offered beginning with Auction 73, spread across the September and December sales. Ten-state rows are deficit from 2027 (-9.8 deepening to -32.9 Mt), against a monitor surplus of 55M short tons at end-Q2 2026, projected 45M at the CP6 deadline (Potomac special Supply & Demand report, 21 August 2026).
Desk view: Judgment — neutral to constructive. Drawdown pace, not any single compliance year, is what reprices; the federal repeal removes a backbone that was never the binding constraint inside RGGI states.
Alberta TIER. Primary print: CAD 95.00 (2026-05-15, headline TIER price for 2026, stated verbatim in s.1.2.1.1 of the Canada–Alberta Implementation Agreement). No citable secondary credit mark on our tape.
What moved: Nothing in TIER itself overnight.
Why: The live item remains clause 1.2.3.4: credits generated before enactment of the credit price floor regulation — which Alberta is to enact by 31 December 2026 — stay transferable below the floor per their original expiry periods.
Desk view: Judgment — neutral on the headline price, which is administered and set to 2040 (CAD 100 for 2027-2029, CAD 115 in 2030); the trade is the grandfathering cutoff, which argues for pre-enactment issuance to price at a discount to post-enactment paper.
California LCFS credit: USD 83.77 (covering week of 2026-09-14, report posted 2026-09-22, CARB weekly volume-weighted average credit transfer price, range 74.00–85.25), against USD 79.85 for the week of 2026-09-07 — up 4.9 percent week on week, the fourth consecutive weekly gain on our tape. BC LCFS: CAD 172.00 (2026-08-31, monthly average credit transfer price). RIN prints are 31 days old and are historic, not marks; the desk holds no current licensed RIN level.
What moved: Our monitors flag the renewable-diesel margin channel turning mixed from up. Energy legs: Brent USD 114.89 per barrel, WTI USD 96.41, Gulf Coast ULSD USD 4.992 per gallon (all EIA spot, 2026-09-22).
Why: Firmer diesel widens the RD margin, lifts generation and adds credit supply — bearish credits; the channel is mixed, so it is not carrying a clean signal this session. Structure runs the other way: 2026Q1 showed 6.93M MT credits against 9.77M MT deficits (net -2.84M MT) with a cumulative bank of 36.86M MT, published 31 July.
Desk view: Judgment — constructive CA LCFS. Flow says mixed, structure says drawdown, and we weight structure because the bank is the binding variable at this stage of the amended targets. Canada CFR: ECCC's credit-retirement data is unpublished, so our rows are an index, not a quantity; no citable market mark.
No new REC development in the last 24 hours and no citable traded REC price on our tape this morning (three of twenty tracked rows carry a sourced price).
Desk view: Judgment — no firmness call on any class without a citable price. Standing read: compliance-driven, obligation-specific, and classes do not average; a solar carve-out SREC and a bundled Class I REC differ by an order of magnitude.
SBTi: no new development overnight. As standing context, the Corporate Net-Zero Standard V2.0 was published 11 June 2026 ; validations against V2.0 open 1 February 2027, V1.3.1 submissions close 31 January 2028 and V2.0 becomes mandatory 1 February 2028. Its Ongoing Emissions Responsibility framework lets companies report use of removal, reduction and avoidance credits as supplementary action, recorded separately from science-based targets.
Article 6: nothing desk-held to report this morning.
Desk view: Judgment — neutral VCM. The demand step is dated 2027-2028, not this quarter, and nothing overnight pulls it forward.
EU ETS (EUA). Primary print: EUR 86.05 (2026-09-24, latest EEX auction clearing price). Mark: EUR 86.01 (2026-09-23, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), EUA, settlement observation), -0.8 percent vs prior same-basis mark, carried from the prior session. This morning's clearing prints essentially on top of the futures settle — no auction concession.
What moved: Nothing new overnight beyond the auction.
Why: Rows show surplus +113.7 Mt in 2027 narrowing and flipping to deficit in 2029 (-28.9 Mt) on the LRF path under Directive (EU) 2023/959; at the current TNAC the Market Stability Reserve is taking allowances in, not releasing.
Desk view: Judgment — constructive on the curve, neutral spot.
UK ETS (UKA). Mark: GBP 58.22 (2026-09-23, most liquid futures settlement (Dec26), UKA, settlement observation), +0.2 percent vs prior same-basis mark, carried from the prior session. Primary print: GBP 59.34 (2026-08-31, official monthly average UKA settlement price, Dec futures, CCM table).
What moved: No fresh UK development on our own record.
Why: Rows are deficit throughout (-2.7 Mt 2027 to -17.2 Mt 2030) under SI 2020/1265 Table B as amended by SI 2026/392, the maritime extension in force 1 July 2026; the Dec26 UKA/EUA differential is -21.2 percent in common currency, narrowing to -18.9 percent by Dec28.
Desk view: Judgment — the curve already pays for convergence; neutral outright, mildly constructive on the spread.
NZ ETS (NZU). Mark: NZD 52.00 (2026-09-17, NZU secondary spot, intraday observation), +2.0 percent across a 13-day span, not a daily move.
What moved: The 8 September auction failed — no bids, 10,400,000 units unsold, rolled to the next scheduled auction on 1 December; the third 2026 auction to fail.
Desk view: Judgment — we make the no-clear our base case for 1 December absent an MfE settings change, which caps effective supply at industrial allocation and keeps the rows in a -33 Mt-a-year deficit.
Australia (ACCU). Last print: AUD 39.03 (2026-08-14, generic ACCU spot, CER QCMR June quarter 2026 post-quarter price) — a quarterly print past its cadence, not a live mark.
Desk view: Judgment — neutral pending the next CER quarterly; rows deficit throughout on the legislated 4.9 percent baseline decline.
Correction issued 2026-09-24
Correction: five figures in the 23 September evening edition were superseded releases, one mechanism was stated backwards, and one posting date was the desk's rather than CARB's: The 23 September evening edition carried five superseded figures, stated one mechanism backwards, and gave the desk's date for a CARB posting. Editions: 23 September evening edition. Read the full correction
Corrections & notes